Tuesday, November 29, 2022

10-Year Note Speculators Continued To Cut Bearish Bets Into January


10-Year Note Non-Commercial Speculator Positions:

Large bond speculators sharply cut back on their bearish net positions in the futures markets into early January, according to the latest Commitment of Traders (COT) data released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on Friday.

The latest COT data is from early in January due to the government shutdown which halted the releases. The CFTC is releasing data on Tuesdays and Fridays going forward until the data is back up to date.

The non-commercial futures contracts of 10-Year Note futures, traded by large speculators and hedge funds, totaled a net position of -188,068 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday, January 8th. This was a weekly increase of 120,219 net contracts from the previous week which had a total of -308,287 net contracts.

The week’s net position was the result of the gross bullish position (longs) rising by 44,107 contracts to a weekly total of 650,789 contracts in addition to the gross bearish position (shorts) which saw a drop by -76,112 contracts for the week total of 838,857 contracts.

The net speculative position dropped for the fourth straight week and by a total of 205,734 contracts over that period. The fall below the -200,000 net contract level marked the least bearish position in approximately a year.

10-Year Note Commercial Positions:

The commercial traders’ position, hedgers or traders engaged in buying and selling for business purposes, totaled a net position of 177,746 contracts on the week. This was a weekly decline of -144,170 contracts from the total net of 321,916 contracts reported the previous week.

10-Year Note Futures:

Over the same weekly reporting time-frame, from Tuesday to Tuesday, the 10-Year Note Futures (Front Month) closed at approximately $121.75 which was a decline of $-0.26 from the previous close of $122.01, according to unofficial market data.

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