Saturday, July 2, 2022

Corn And Ethanol: Fed Interest Rate Decision

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On the Hurricane Front Tropical Storm Eta is causing catastrophic Flash Flooding, River flooding along with landslides. Eta is forecasted to move back in the northwestern Caribbean Sea and increasing risk to portions of Cuba, southern Florida, The Florida Keyes, Panhandle, and other Gulf Coast states.

 

On the front election victor or no Presidential victor the market understands there will be another wave of Chinese and other countries buying U.S. Ag products, energies, and other commodities. In the Asian market coming in on Wednesday the corn and wheat dipped only to turnaround in yesterday’s U.S.  trading session. The talk of demand for exports is real and something the U.S. farmer has not seen in sometime. Meaning fair trade deals. Traders, farmers, and boots on the ground will be watching the Exports Sales this morning. In the overnight electronic session, the December corn is currently trading at 409 ¾ which is 4 ½ cents higher. The trading range has been 411 ¾ to 404.

 

On the front we had growth in production and domestic supply inched higher according to the EIA data yesterday. U.S. ethanol imports averaged 29,000 barrels a day, a seven-week high and the 11 out of the last 15 weeks with recorded imports. Still waiting to hear what type of volume numbers the Chinese has set their sights to in the U.S. ethanol market. The next corn for ethanol use will be the November 10 USDA reports. There were no trades posted in the overnight electronic session. The December ethanol settled at 1.350 and the market is currently showing 2 bids at 1.350 and 3 offers at 1.479 with Open Interest at 44 contracts.

 

On the front the technical analysis on WTI crude oil seem to be looking fairly neutral according to Daniel Dubrovsky, Analyst with Daily FX. He also pointed out a bearish “Death Cross” established in September. Yet, the 3615-3710 support zone held recently as positive RSI divergence unfolded. The latter is a sign of fading downside momentum, which at times precedes a turn higher. Key resistance sits above between 4291 to 4387.

 

Saudi Aramco is not happy with profits. So, on the fundamental side with Libya back online, will OPEC & OPEC+ are willing to “toe the line” on production and production cuts? In the overnight electronic session the December crude oil is currently trading at 3905 which is 10 points lower. The trading range has been 3917 to 3827.

 

On the front, we have the weekly EIA Gas Storage data. And Thomson Reuters polled 17 analysts, whose estimates ranged from withdrawals of 38bcf to 10bcf and a median decrease of 27bcf. This compares to the one-year injection build of 12bcf and the five-year average build of 33bcf. In the overnight electronic session, the December natural gas is currently trading at 3.080 which is .034 higher. The trading range has been 3.113 to 3.021.





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