Monday, September 26, 2022

Dow Jones, Gold, US Dollar, US Election Aftermath, Where to?


The Dow Jones, S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 experienced their best week since early April as the United States went to the polls to vote on a new government composition. Anti-risk currencies like the US Dollar and Japanese Yen declined as growth-linked ones like the Australian and New Zealand Dollars outperformed. Anti-fiat gold prices gained as crude oil rose cautiously.

Markets were initially thrown off by what was appearing to be a contested election. But as the counts came in, Democratic nominee Joe Biden began closing in on incumbent Donald Trump. On Friday, Mr Biden appeared to take the lead in key swing states Georgia and Pennsylvania. Some certainty likely boosted markets, overlooking what may be a smaller-than-expected fiscal package.

Equities Forecast

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Trump has filed a lawsuit, contesting election votes for Joe Biden, bringing some uncertainty into financial markets as more votes will be tallied in the days ahead. The Senate race in Georgia is also heading for a runoff, meaning that the composition of the upper chamber likely won’t be known until at least early January.

A confirmed win for Joe Biden will likely be a major foreign policy shift compared to the current administration, and emerging market assets are rallying. This is as the European Union is approaching the November 10th target date to impose WTO-approved tariffs against the United States worth about $4 billion. Trump has hinted at retaliation.

Rising coronavirus cases in the US and Europe are also a concern, with lockdowns having been recently introduced in the latter. This is denting global growth recovery expectations. Brexit talks are also continuing this week. The ECB is hosting a forum where Fed Chair Jerome Powell, BoE’s Andrew Bailey and President Christine Lagarde will speak. What else is in store for markets next?

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Fundamental Forecasts:

S&P 500 May Eye Higher Levels on Post-Election Stimulus Hopes

The S&P 500 index may weather through near-term volatility and aim for higher levels on post-election stimulus hopes. Pandemic risk and monetary easing may also return to the centre stage

Euro Forecast: EUR/USD Gains on Election, EU-US Tariffs to Derail Markets?

The Euro rose as the US Dollar sank on the US election. With Joe Biden in the lead, will the EU impose WTO-approved retaliatory tariffs on the US? All eyes are also on the ECB’s forum

Gold Price Fundamental Outlook Bolstered by US Dollar Weakness

Gold price action just inked its best weekly gain since late July when the precious metal was in the midst of a bullish breakout. Can gold continue propelling higher on the back of US Dollar weakness?

Japanese Yen May Rise on Covid-19 Lockdowns, Trump Legal Challenges

The haven-associated Japanese Yen may move higher on the back of tightening Covid-19 restrictions and President Trump’s legal challenges in several battleground states.

Sterling (GBP) Weekly Outlook – Brexit Deadline Nears as UK PM Johnson Comes Under the Spotlight

The UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson has had an uncomfortable week and next week is likely to continue in the same vein as Brexit and Covid-19 worries continue.

Technical Forecasts:

Euro Forecast: EUR/USD Outlook Improves as USD Strength Ebbs Away

The coming week should be less volatile for EUR/USD as the markets settle in the wake of the US Elections, with the Euro potentially benefiting from any further move into risk assets.

Mexican Peso Technical Forecast: Further Downside is Likely but Uncertainty Remains

As we wait for the outcome of the US presidential election, USD/MXN takes advantage of a risk-on move

Pound Technical Analysis: GBP/USD Set up to Stay Strong

A generally weak dollar is setting up cable and others to rally in the days ahead; GBP/USD lines and levels to watch.

AUD/USD Forecast: Australian Dollar Rally Overextended?

The Australian Dollar rallied versus the US Dollar as risk appetite soared, but the move in AUD/USD may be overextended in the short term

US Dollar Outlook: Post-Election Plunge Puts USD at Key Trend Support

Dollar Index plunged 1.94% post-election with the price sell-off now at multi-year uptrend support. Here are the levels that matter on the DXY weekly technical chart.

Dow Jones, Nasdaq 100, CAC 40, FTSE 100 Forecasts for the Week Ahead

Stocks ripped higher last week, recapturing much of the ground lost in late October. Now nearing resistance, can the major equity markets continue to drive higher?

Gold Price Forecast: XAU Election Breakout Drives Fresh Highs

Gold finally broke out of the falling wedge that had built for much of the past three months. But can bulls continue the move?


Gold vs USD, currencies

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