Tuesday, November 29, 2022

EUR/USD: Strong Reversal? | Investing.com


The forex market on the daily chart reversed up from below the bottom of the 7-week tight trading range this week and then above the top. This is a strong reversal. Traders will buy the 1st 1–3 day pullback, confident that there will be at least a small 2nd leg up.


The momentum up this week has been enough to make a test of the September high likely within a couple weeks. That is the top of the wedge on the weekly chart and the top of the 4-month trading range. If the bulls can get a couple closes above that high, traders will expect the rally to continue to the next resistance. That is the February 2018 high at around 1.25.

Since the EUR/USD is still in a 4-month trading range, there is still a 50% chance that this rally will fail around the September high. The odds will go up if the rally starts to stall next week.

Overnight EUR/USD Forex Trading

The 5-minute chart of the EUR/USD Forex market rallied strongly overnight to above last week’s high, and the high of the 7-week trading range. It barely broke above and then has been sideways for a couple hours. That is a sign that it might enter a trading range around last week’s high for the remainder of the day.

While day traders have only been buying, there was a 20-pip pullback about an hour ago. That is enough for some day traders to begin to sell reversals down for scalps, betting on a transition to a trading range for the remainder of the day.

Last week’s high will probably be a magnet for the rest of the day. The bulls want the week to close above last week’s high. That would increase the chance of higher prices next week.

The bears want today to reverse down. But they would need the week to close at least 20 pips below last week’s high to significantly increase the chance that the EUR/USD will stay in the 7-week range.

Day traders will continue to buy pullbacks today unless there is a strong reversal down. Since the EUR/USD will probably enter a trading range around last week’s high, the bulls will switch to scalping.

Disclaimer: Fusion Media would like to remind you that the data contained in this website is not necessarily real-time nor accurate. All CFDs (stocks, indexes, futures) and Forex prices are not provided by exchanges but rather by market makers, and so prices may not be accurate and may differ from the actual market price, meaning prices are indicative and not appropriate for trading purposes. Therefore Fusion Media doesn`t bear any responsibility for any trading losses you might incur as a result of using this data.

Fusion Media or anyone involved with Fusion Media will not accept any liability for loss or damage as a result of reliance on the information including data, quotes, charts and buy/sell signals contained within this website. Please be fully informed regarding the risks and costs associated with trading the financial markets, it is one of the riskiest investment forms possible.

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