The Forex market on the daily chart has poked above the Sept. 10 high each of the past three days. The bulls want a breakout and then a test of the Sept. 1 high. That is the top of a four-month trading range and the highest price in two years.
Throughout November, the bulls have been trying to get a close above the Sept. 10 high. At the moment, the EUR/USD is just above that high. If today can close above that high, traders will expect higher prices next week. The next resistance is the Sept. 1 high.
If a market repeatedly tries to do something but fails, it usually then tries to do the opposite. If there is suddenly a big bear bar closing on its low within the next week, traders will conclude that the bulls are selling out of their longs and giving up. That should probably lead to a test of support at the Nov. 4 low.
Overnight EUR/USD Forex Trading
The 5-minute chart of the EUR/USD Forex market has been in a 15-pip range for the past eight hours. Day traders are having a difficult time making even a 10-pip scalp.
But what is important today is that the overnight trading range is just above the Sept. 10 high. The bulls will be happy having the range last until the close. If it does, the EUR/USD will have closed above that top of the three-month trading range for the first time.
Also, on the weekly chart, this week will be an outside up bar closing on its high. Both of these charts will probably trade higher next week. Traders will expect a test of the Sept. 1 high within a couple weeks.
Since today is at a critical price, there is an increased chance of a surprisingly big day in either direction. But with many U.S. traders and institutions not trading today, the day will probably remain small. The focus will be the close. Can the bulls finally get a close above the Sept. 10 high?
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