Friday, February 3, 2023

Opening Bell: Futures, Stocks Fall On U.S. Political Uncertainty; Dollar Up


  • US stocks heading for sour, end-of-month note
  • Oil falls below $39
  • Yields aim lower

Key Events

The chaotic US presidential debate on Tuesday has put a disorderly transition of power centerstage, denting US futures on Wednesday, including the , , and , and European stocks. Still, Treasuries and gold fell, and the dollar gained.

Global Financial Affairs

All four major US contracts were down at the time of writing, paring as much as a 1.3% decline after the acrimonious dual between President Donald Trump and former Vice President and Democratic candidate Joe Biden, in which Trump warned of widespread voter fraud, albeit without any real proof, especially with mail-in ballots. 

Shares in Europe fell, with the Index opening lower, as the continuing spread of COVID-19 and the of American politics came on the heels of months of paralysis in Congress on attempts to launch a second economic stimulus package to offset the damage that the coronavirus pandemic has ravaged on US economic growth. 

In a mixed Asian session earlier today, Indian indices, the and , as well as the South Korea’s and Hong Kong’s were bright green regional lights. However, it’s impossible to miss the obvious setup for a plunge of the India benchmarks, as both indices are forming tops.

BSE Daily

The Sensex is forming a H&S top, with the 200DMA shaping a natural neckline and the 50DMA pressuring the price toward a downside breakout.

The global equity rebound that found momentum toward the end of September fizzled yesterday, ahead of the US presidential debate.

During Tuesday’s Wall Street trade the fell, dragged down by more than two thirds of the index’s listed stocks.

The benchmark slipped after finding resistance by the 50 DMA for the second day. That moving average realigned with the bottom of a rising flag, suggesting the preceding three-day rally was a return move that may have ended, sending prices back toward the 100 DMA and the September lows.

Yields, including for the Treasury note, have fallen—demonstrating a bullish view by investors who sold Treasuries.

US 10-Year Daily

However, rates remains below the 50 DMA—having formed a natural neckline for a H&S top—for the second straight day. The last time that happened, yields fell within an inch of 0.5%, testing the March record low.

The rose with yields, attempting to render the preceding two-day selloff a completed return-move to the bottom.

Dollar Index Daily

Dollar Index Daily

The greenback has been taking on the falling channel since the March top. Indicators suggest enough juice for a topside breakout.

The  weighed on .

Gold Daily

It is also raising the odds of a completed corrective rally—represented by the 100 DMA—after the symmetrical triangle’s downside breakout—represented by the 50 DMA. The 200 DMA support the long-term uptrend. The momentum-based ROC and RSI demonstrate the struggles between the short-term downtrend and long-term uptrend.

Along with Tuesday’s US equity selloff, edged lower, closing below $40 for the first time in over a week. The weakness comes ahead of US later today.

WTI Daily

Technically, the contract may have blown a bullish pennant or is still developing a bullish flag. Bulls hold on to hope, as the price found support from the 200 DMA. Our bet, however, is with the much larger, preceding bearish rising wedge.

Up Ahead

  • The EIA crude oil inventory report comes out Wednesday.
  • The September U.S. on Friday will be the last before the November election.

Market Moves


  • The Stoxx Europe 600 Index fell 0.3%.
  • Futures on the S&P 500 Index dropped 0.6%.
  • NASDAQ 100 Index futures declined 0.8%.
  • The Index decreased 0.6%.


  • The Dollar Index added 0.1% to 93.97.
  • weakened 0.1% to 0.9143 per euro.
  • The Japanese was little changed at 105.61 per dollar.
  • The Mexican strengthened 0.4% to 22.3792 per dollar.


  • The yield on 10-year Treasuries climbed less than one basis point to 0.65%.
  • Germany’s yield jumped one basis point to -0.54%.
  • Britain’s yield increased one basis point to 0.192%.
  • New Zealand’s yield climbed five basis points to 0.519%.


  • West Texas Intermediate crude fell 0.5% to $39.09 a barrel.
  • Gold dipped 0.5% to $1,888.28 an ounce.
  • weakened 2.3% to $23.87 per ounce.
  • surged 3% to $120.28 per metric ton.

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