Saturday, January 28, 2023

Opening Bell: U.S. Futures, Stocks Buoyed By Stimulus Hopes; Dollar Slips


  • Dollar suffers worst quarter in over three years
  • US equites rally on Wall Street
  • Speculation on stimulus is Thursday’s biggest global equities driver

Key Events

Expectations that US lawmakers would reach an agreement on a new economic stimulus package helped European markets and US futures open higher on Thursday. Contracts on the , , and are all trading in positive territory. However, oil is down over 1% as the outlook for demand , while gold has benefited from dollar weakness.

Global Financial Affairs

US futures are being supported by speculation that bargaining positions between the Congressional Republicans and Democrats have narrowed following additional assistance from Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin who raised the offer previously presented by Republicans. This meant House Democrats delayed their vote on the stimulus package as Speaker, Nancy Pelosi said she was seeking “further clarification” on the offer.

Contracts were up at least 1.3% on the NASDAQ and as much as 0.8% on the SPX.

The Index was also boosted by positive results from Swedish retailer H&M (ST:) and French-Italian chipmaker STMicroelectronics (PA:) which sent shares in both companies higher. While shares of German pharma giant Bayer (DE:) after it announced further cost cuts and impairment charges.

Asian bulls drove regional markets higher on Thursday morning. Speculation that the US will deliver more stimulus found little resistance in thin holiday trading. South Korea’s jumped 0.9%, after posting a merchandise trade surplus of $8.88 billion in September. Australia’s closed up almost 1%, ending a three day slide, after Prime Minister Scott Morrison eased fears of a second pandemic wave, saying his country will reopen its border with New Zealand “very soon.” Also, the latest release showed Australia’s climbed to 55.4 from 53.6 in August.

Tokyo’s stock exchange on Thursday due to a technical glitch which halted equity trading.

The end of third quarter on Wednesday saw US stocks close in the green, but they were well off their highs amid choppy trading. The gave up 1.7% gains, locking in 0.8% added value.

S&P Daily

Technically, the benchmark formed a shooting star, confirming resistance of a bearish flag, signaling the corrective rally is over and the short-term downtrend will persist.

Risk-on pushed yields, including for the Treasury note, to a second day rise.

10-year Daily

However, rates are still in play for a H&S top, with the 50 DMA acting as a natural neckline.

The fell for the fourth day, adding to its worst quarter in over three years.

Dollar Index Daily

Dollar Index Daily

Greenback volatility resumed for the second day, as the currency is being squeezed between short-term bulls, projected by the bottom formation and the 50 DMA, and long-term bears, represented by the falling channel and the 100 DMA.

Dollar weakness fueled a continued rally, trimming Wednesday’s losses—as the yellow metal within its short-term downtrend

Gold Daily

The contract completed a bearish symmetrical triangle that pushed prices below their uptrend line since the March bottom. The precious metal registered its worst month since November 2016 on the preceding dollar rally, but at the same time, its long-term uptrend, tallying an 8th quarterly gain, is its longest winning quarterly streak in ten years.

gave up gains, retreating below the $40 mark, even as US posted a surprise decline. At first, it seemed that drawdown would outweigh the worsening demand outlook, but the fall again below the psychological $40 level dispels that notion.

Bulls will have a hard time propping up prices when a 7-day MA of worldwide commercial flights dropped to its lowest since mid-August.

Oil Daily

The trading pattern still fits either a pennant or rising flag, continuation patterns, suggesting the Sept. 9 rebound from near $36 would resume. However, this two-week supply-demand domino is moving against a rising wedge, a three-month pattern—suggesting a potential six times greater interest, giving bears a one-sided advantage.

Up Ahead

  • Key European economies, including and are reporting PMI data on Thursday.
  • US and continuing claims are due Thursday.
  • The September US report on Friday will be the last before the November election.

Market Moves


  • The Stoxx Europe 600 Index climbed 0.6%.
  • Futures on the S&P 500 Index gained 0.8%.
  • NASDAQ 100 Index futures increased 0.7%.
  • The Index rose 0.4%.


  • The Dollar Index dipped 0.05, paring a 0.2 decline%.
  • The British climbed 0.1% to $1.2932.
  • The Japanese was little changed at 105.49 per dollar.
  • The strengthened 0.6% to 6.7411 per dollar.


  • The yield on 10-year Treasuries climbed one basis point to 0.70%.
  • Germany’s yield rose one basis point to -0.51%.
  • Britain’s yield increased two basis points to 0.244%.
  • New Zealand’s yield gained two basis points to 0.536%.


  • West Texas Intermediate crude climbed 0.1% to $40.27 a barrel.
  • Gold strengthened 0.7% to $1,898.14 an ounce.
  • strengthened 2.3% to $23.77 per ounce.
  • fell 0.1% to $117.02 per metric ton.

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