Tuesday, May 30, 2023

Pulling Back from New All-time High Ahead of US CPI Data


Key Talking Points:

  • DAX 30 reaches new all-time high overnight but struggles to keep bullish momentum
  • US CPI data on focus as equities continue to take advantage of flexible conditions

The DAX 30 is losing a few points this morning after setting a new record high overnight. This break higher has left behind the sideways trend from the last few weeks and has served to confirm that the German index continues its upward trend. The trendline support from back in January continues to be relevant t this time, having held an attempted pullback in yesterday’s session despite having been breached last week. But bulls have been unable to keep the DAX above 15,800 this morning and the key now will be whether this move higher can be sustained. If so, I’d expect momentum to build up towards the 16,000 level, at which point we may see some renewed bearish pressure given the significance of such a round number. If not, watch out for the ascending trendline for renewed support, followed by the 15,500 level as a sign of further weakness.

DAX 30 Daily chart

DAX 30 Outlook: Pulling Back from New All-time High Ahead of US CPI Data

Data in focus: the day was kicked off with German inflation data this morning, showing a slight decrease in inflationary pressures from the previous month as expected. The CPI data for June showed an increase of 2.3% year on year, down from 2.5% in May, and a monthly rise of 0.4%, down from 0.5% the prior month. Confirmation of a softer reading likely has eased pressure from the ECB to modify monetary policy anytime soon, which continues to boost equities.

Out later today will be CPI data for the US, which will be the main focus of today’s session. Expectations are for the yearly figure to have continued rising to 4% in June from 3.8% in May. A stronger than expected reading is likely to weigh on equities in the afternoon as investors will start to believe once again that the Fed should act sooner than planned as inflation, despite them reiterating that increasing price pressures are expected on a transitory basis. Today’s data is likely to play into the rhetoric the central bank will use at its next meeting on the 28th of July, leading into the Jackson Hole policy review in August, which is the meeting most analysts believe will bring changes if needed.

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— Written by Daniela Sabin Hathorn, Market Analyst

Follow Daniela on Twitter @HathornSabin

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