Long story short, I am still bearish on , despite (or even because of) the recent price recovery.
A few important things to note:
1. I use Elliott Wave to give a bias. I don’t try to identify every twist and turn
2. I don’t trade the 3-4 wave as it is dangerous and will steal all your money .
3. So, I am not advocating a sell here, just saying we are not ready to buy.
4. I am long term bullish in BTC, and some Alt Coins as well, (Mainly and )
5. I spend a lot of time putting myself in the shoes of Richard Wyckoff’s “Composite Man” *
*For information on this concept go here: https://medium.com/@ColdBloodShill/wyckoff-101-part-2-the-composite-operator-4e80d3862682
Richard Wyckoff’s Composite Man is not there to make YOU money. he is there to take it from you. What better than a nice quick rally from the bottom to re-convince the average retail trader that we’ve seen the low and all is well? What’s more, having stopped a whole load of retail out yesterday morning with a sudden dive through the painfully obvious wall of stop-loss orders just under $40,000, he’ll be happy enough to do it again. Elliott Wave 4 can be painful and also slow.
I am not blind to the possibility that the coin can rally from here, and the beauty of being patient is that if it does, then there will be an identifiable pullback (the 1-2 move in Elliott Wave terms) and then, and only then, I’ll reconsider the bearish bias. We may even be in the 1-2 move right now, theoretically (but I don’t think so).
If you don’t believe in Elliott Wave, then think on this: I was once the same as you. I looked a lot harder at it and became more successful as a result. A survey of one, I admit, but it is true.
The middle of the current range at $35,500 – $36,000 is significant and price action should be watched carefully at this point. Expect a pause and a mini-range.
It’s only recently that the wider and more powerful investment community (basically Wyckoff’s Composite Man) has got involved with Bitcoin. His fingerprints are now everywhere, so be careful and remember that you are the prey.
If the market seems fickle and cruel to you, that’s because he is on the other side of your trades.
I would expect an eventual dip into new bearish territory below $30,000 again, but it will take time. Only then will I be looking to invest. I won’t be trading BTC on margin, and neither should you.