Saturday, June 3, 2023

S&P: Short Term Neutral For Now


Yesterday we said, “Today the Tick closed at -270 and trin at 1.60 which is a bullish combination and suggests tomorrow could be an up day. The “Buying Climax” day of 11/9 had volume of 1.72 million shares and to break  above the 11/9 high volume would need to be 1.55m or higher; which is unlikely.

SPY Daily

SPY Daily

Most likely the 11/9 high will be  tested tomorrow but volume most likely will be less than 1.55m; setting up a bearish scenario. Pattern forming  could be “Three Drives to Top” which has downside target to where pattern began which is near the 350  range.” Today’s test of the 11/9 “Buy Climax” came in with volume of 68M and way short what was need for a  confirmed breakout; suggests that this breakout could fail. Today’s tick closed at +246 and bearish but not sure if  its bearish enough to start the pull back. Its common for signals to come in later in the week and Friday’s seem to  have the best signals. Next week looks down. Short term neutral for now. 

VIX Daily

VIX Daily

Yesterday we said, “There can be a short term pull back; but ultimately market will move higher. Intermediate term  still appears bullish and suggests any pull back should be bought.” Having said that. Above are the and the SPY. When both are up; it suggests the market may be near a short term high and today both where up. The VIX and the SPY can be up together for several days before a pull back can begin (noted on chart in late August).   

Gold Daily

Gold Daily

The last time we showed this chart was 11/23. The chart above is the daily (ETF for Gold). We have marked  in red the “Selling Climax” days and in blue the test of the “Selling Climax” days. On 11/23 the test of the “Selling  Climax” day of 11/9 came and to complete the bullish signal, GLD needs to close above the “Selling Climax” low  (173.64). As of this reporting, the close is about 3 points higher. If and when GLD close above 173.64 will  complete the buy signal. Impulse wave coming, but need to be patience. Long GDX (NYSE:) on 10/9/20 at 40.78. 

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